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Study: Predicting Hospital Surge after a Large-Scale Anthrax Attack

According to a study in a special issue of Medical Decision Making, a large-scale, covert anthrax attack on a large city would overwhelm hospital resources even with an extremely effective public health response, primarily because of expected delays in detecting the attack and initiating a response to it.

The article "Predicting Hospital Surge after a Large-Scale Anthrax Attack: A Model-Based Analysis of CDC's Cities Readiness Initiative Prophylaxis Recommendations," examines one of the CDC's principal bioterrorism-response programs, the Cities Readiness Initiative (CRI), a program that recommends the medical countermeasures necessary to minimize the hospital surge resulting from anthrax-related illness and response in the first two days after a major bioterrorism attack.

The researchers found that a CRI-compliant prophylaxis campaign starting two days after exposure would protect as many as 86% of exposed individuals from illness. However, each additional day needed to complete the campaign would result in as much as 3% more hospitalizations in the exposed population. Unsustainable levels of hospitalizations would result from delays in detecting and initiating response to large-scale, covert aerosol anthrax releases in a major city, even with highly effective mass prophylaxis campaigns.

Via - EurekAlert, Click "source" for the study.

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